Round two in Istanbul
As Ukraine braces for a new Russian offensive, Washington is pondering sanctions.
UPD: Less than an hour after I published this, the Ukrainian government confirmed it will be sending a delegation to Istanbul this Monday, headed by the Defence Minister Rustem Umerov. President Zelensky said the priorities are an immediate ceasefire, the return of all prisoners and children, and arranging a high-level meeting to discuss all the other “key questions”.
Hello and welcome to your weekly Ukraine briefing.
Since I missed the last edition, I’ll cover the broad strokes of what happened in the past two weeks.
Round two? Ukraine and Russia might meet again in Istanbul on Monday, June 2. I say 'might' because the Ukrainian government has yet to confirm its participation, frustrated with Russia’s refusal to share its terms for peace before the meeting. The Kremlin said it formulated a “memorandum” about ending the war, but refused to reveal it before Monday. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia was doing “everything it can” to make the negotiations fruitless, although I’m not sure what new information Kyiv expects to find in that memo, since Russia has already made its maximalist demands crystal clear. More about those demands here.
POWs come home. Ukraine and Russia held their largest-ever prisoner swap, each side returning 1000 people over three days. The swap was negotiated in Istanbul during the first round of talks between Kyiv and Moscow on May 16. Some of the Ukrainians who returned home were taken captive in the early days of the war, enduring unspeakable torture for years. More than 100 Ukrainian civillians were also brought home.
For me, the most heartbreaking part of the process wasn’t the POWs reuniting with their families, but the loved ones of the still-missing Ukrainians lining up with their photos in hopes that those who returned would recognize them, offering any information about their whereabouts or state of being. More than 60,000 Ukrainian civillians and soldiers are considered missing as of this April.
Trump’s reckoning. If not for the tragic consequences of it all, it’s been quite hilarious watching Donald Trump dance under Putin’s thumb in the most embarrassing of ways. Two weeks ago, after speaking with Putin, Trump told European leaders that Russia agreed to start negotiations “immediately”. According to Axios, this was followed by “a few seconds of puzzled silence” from the Europeans and Zelensky, who had to remind Trump that the first round of direct talks had already happened days earlier.
A week later, when Russia pummelled Ukraine with hundreds of drones and missiles, Trump called Putin “CRAZY” for “needlessly killing a lot of people” on Truth Social. In a separate post on Tuesday, Trump said, “REALLY BAD” things would have happened to Russia if it weren’t for him.
New sanctions. Speaking of bad things happening to Russia, the European Union and the United Kingdom imposed new sanctions against Moscow on May 20. They mainly targeted Moscow’s shadow fleet, which still provides a sizable chunk of Russian oil revenue.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal visited Kyiv on Friday, discussing, among other things, Graham’s Russia sanctions bill that would impose 500% tariffs on imports from countries that buy Russian oil and gas. Graham said 82 out of 100 senators support the bill, and he expected the Senate to start moving the bill forward this upcoming week.
Summer offensive. Ukraine is bracing for a new Russian offensive throughout the summer, with increased fighting already reported all across the frontline. Russia is likely hoping to conquer the entire Donetsk Oblast in Eastern Ukraine, though its push towards the city of Sumy near the Russian border is worrying too. Zelensky said Russia has amassed around 50,000 troops in the direction of Sumy. Days earlier, Putin said he ordered the Russian military to create a “buffer zone” in that area.
If you want to know more about this, check out the recent episode of the Lawfare Daily podcast where my former colleague Francis Farrell and I discuss front line developments. The episode is available everywhere, including Apple Podcasts and our website.
Other stories I’m following…
From Militarnyi, Russia Ups the Ante in the Baltic Sea
From The Wall Street Journal, The U.S. Reinforces Europe’s Northern Front, Fearing War With Russia
From Reuters, Poland votes in tight presidential race between pro-EU and nationalist visions
That will be all for this week. I’m off to enjoy the summer sun in Shevchenko Park in central Kyiv, hopefully without air raids.
Cheers,
— Yours Ukrainian
After today's brilliant attacks on Russian strategic aircraft and bridges, Ukraine will be taking some new cards to Turkey. Well done! Slava Ukraini!!
I got up today expecting more horrible US news and I was so THRILLED to read of the fantastic Ukrainian drone attack on Russia!! I did a happy adnce and felt good all day. Later when I saw you on Dog Shirt with Ben and you looked so happy, I am happy for Ukraine too, and happy for you and your family!. I think of you every day, a bright spot.