Another Russian farce

First talks between Kyiv and Moscow

Hello and welcome to your weekly briefing on all things Ukraine, which this time looks like a bad movie made worse by a terrible ending.

Act one. Since Monday, everyone has been anticipating the first direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in years, scheduled for Thursday in Turkey.

Russia’s Vladimir Putin initiated the meeting, but Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky upped the stakes by saying he was ready to meet his counterpart personally. This put Putin in a tough spot: agreeing would show weakness and undermine the Kremlin’s claim that Zelensky is illegitimate, while disagreeing would once again make it obvious that Russia isn’t interested in peace. The images of Zelensky being stood up by Putin in Turkey were supposed to, in an optimistic scenario, penetrate even Donald Trump’s brain.

As expected, Putin was a no-show. In his place was a low-level delegation headed by his aide, Vladimir Medinsky, a quasi-historian and ideologue of the “Russian world” — a concept that unifies all ethnic Russians and Russian speakers around the world under Moscow’s leadership, making any place with a sizable Russian population Moscow’s sphere of influence. The Kremlin uses this idea as a pretext to meddle in other countries and to invade them, too. Medinsky led the Russian delegation during the last Ukraine-Russia negotiations in early 2022, which quickly fell apart because Ukraine refused to capitulate.

Zelensky sent his own delegation of deputies from Ukraine’s national security and intelligence apparatus, led by Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umerov.

Act two. My expectations for the meeting were muted because, as we discussed many times before, the area of compromise between Kyiv and Moscow is zero. Nothing short of a regime change in Moscow can change the fact that Russia wants to subjugate Ukraine, and the Ukrainians don’t want to be subjugated.

This reality was on full display when the Russians and Ukrainians finally got into a room on Friday. Russia rejected a ceasefire offer yet again, repeating its maximalist demands that, according to Bloomberg, included Ukraine adopting neutrality, withdrawing its forces from four Ukrainian regions that Russia has annexed but doesn’t fully control, legally recognizing Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory, and even renouncing its claims to repatriations from Moscow. Obviously, none of this is remotely acceptable to Ukraine.

It’s worth noting that members of the Russian delegation didn’t have the authority to negotiate a ceasefire or a final peace deal. Medinsky’s only job was to project Moscow’s power, and he did just that. “We’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes…,” he reportedly told the Ukrainian delegation. “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones,” he also said, supposedly smirking at Ukraine’s delegation member, Deputy Foreign Minister Serhii Kyslytsia, whose young nephew died fighting on the front line.

“Russia is prepared to fight forever,” Medinsky said. The Russian delegation also threatened to occupy two more Ukrainian regions — Kharkiv and Sumy.

The only positive development was that Ukraine and Russia tentatively agreed to each swap 1000 prisoners. If it happens as planned this week, it would be the largest POW swap between the two countries.

Act three. Just when I think that Trump can’t possibly swallow more obvious disrespect from the Russians, I am proven wrong yet again. On Thursday, the American president defended Putin’s absence at the talks that he himself facilitated.

“Why would he go if I’m not going?” Trump said at a press conference during his visit to Qatar. He later added that there wouldn’t be any progress until he met with Putin. In a FOX interview the next day, Trump dodged the question of whether he thought Putin was an obstacle to peace, criticizing Zelensky for instead.

On Sunday, Trump said will have phone calls with Putin, Zelensky, and “various members of NATO” on Monday. Russia responded by launching one of its largest drone attacks against Ukraine in years, sending more than 270 drones at the Kyiv region and killing a woman on Sunday night.

Other stories I’m following…

From The Guardian: Germany arrests three Ukrainians over alleged Russian parcel bomb plot

From the Washington Post: Romania could be next to elect a right-wing populist

From the New York Times: Zelensky Meets With Pope Leo After Inaugural Mass

Cheers,

Yours Ukrainian