Zelensky finally unveils his victory plan
Here is everything we know about it so far.
The day has come: President Zelensky finally presented his victory plan to the Ukrainian public, after pitching it to the US and European allies.
On Oct. 16, The President unveiled the plan in a dramatic speech to the parliament, Verkhovna Rada, which burst into applause countless times as he spoke.
If implemented ASAP, the plan should end Russia’s war no later than the end of 2025, Zelensky said.
The plan consists of five points and three secret annexes:
Point #1 — Ukraine immediately receives an invitation to NATO.
Point #2 — Allies give Ukraine more long-range weapons and lift all restrictions on their use, carry out joint operations with UA to shoot down Russian missiles and drones, boost Ukraine’s air defense, provide more military aid to reserve brigades, and share real-time satellite data and other intelligence. Ukraine continues operations on Russia’s territory, including the Kursk incursion, to bring the war to Russia. (This point has a classified annex.)
Point#3 — Ukraine hosts a “comprehensive non-nuclear deterrence package” on its territory, which will give Russia two options: “either join an honest diplomatic process to bring the war to a just end, or certainly lose the ability to continue an aggressive war as a result of Ukraine's use of the provided deterrence package”. (This point also has a classified addendum.)
Point #4 — More sanctions against Russia. A special economic agreement between Ukraine and its allies for the joint protection, investment in, and use of Ukraine’s natural resources, like uranium, titanium, lithium, etc. (This point also has a classified annex.)
Point #5 — Ukrainian soldiers replace certain American troops in Europe after the war. Ukrainian war fighting experience strengthens NATO.
I think Zelensky is doing two things here.
One, he is obviously asking for a huge increase in military aid. By asking for so much, and even boots on the ground (Point #3?), this plan shifts responsibility on the allies almost entirely.
Zelensky is de facto saying to NATO: the ball is now in your court. He is also saying to his home audience: look, we have a plan, we presented a plan, if this doesn’t work, it’s not on us, it’s on them.
It’s no secret that Ukraine’s ability to defend itself has wholeheartedly depended on NATO weaponry, so this message isn’t particularly surprising. It only reflects reality.
“Ukraine's victory plan is a plan to strengthen our state and our positions. To be strong enough to end the war. This Plan can be implemented. It depends on the partners,” Zelensky said.
Opposition lawmakers pushed back, as is their job: "Victory cannot depend only on our partners. It largely depends on us,” commented Iryna Herashchenko, a lawmaker from the opposition party European Solidarity, led by former President Petro Poroshenko.
The President’s speech “only talked about the requirements for partners, and not a word about our homework, so that we meet the criteria of a NATO country,” Heraschenko added.
At the same time, Zelensky is trying to Trump-proof his victory plan.
His speech paints Ukraine as a strong, valuable ally that is worthy of respect as much as aid. He doesn’t sound defeatist (his administration never does, to be fair), even though the frontline situation is growing more alarming by the day. Instead, Zelensky talks about how useful Ukraine can be, clearly alluding to Trump, who needs a financial (or personal) incentive to get anything done.
When talking about NATO, Zelensky doesn’t reference its deterrence capability or Article 5 (this alienates pretty much every NATO member, not just Trump), he talks about Ukraine “being an equal”.
The fourth and fifth points look like sweeteners for MAGA: you help us out and in exchange, we give you natural resources and our troops.
Trump has repeatedly articulated that he doesn’t think helping Ukraine win is in America’s national interests. He also often talks about American troops carrying an unfair burden abroad and NATO allies falling behind in their contributions. Zelensky might be addressing these grievances.
But will any of this work?
NATO invitation seems to be off the table, for now. Just hours after the President’s speech, the US Ambassador to NATO said that Ukraine won’t be invited any time soon.
Point #2 asks for NATO’s help in shooting down Russia’s missiles and drones — which has been repeatedly denied before — while Point #3 seems to be asking for NATO’s combat presence (a base?) in Ukraine. Both seem impossible. I don’t see how after three years of caution the White House can make a 180 turn and get directly involved in the war. I’d love to see it happen, but all things considered, it won’t.
If three weeks later the world faces Trump’s presidency, Biden could push for some stronger measures on Ukraine, fearing that Trump will sell us out to Putin. But what those “stronger measures” might be is unclear.
My colleagues and I are unpacking the plan on not one but two podcasts that will air today and tomorrow on The Lawfare Podcast, don’t miss it! (Rational Security is especially fun, but my 9-month-old daughter makes an appearance on the Lawfare Daily one.)
I’ll be back with the briefing on Sunday.
Have a great rest of the week,
— Yours Ukrainian
Thank you for this very helpful summary. I look forward to the Lawfare podcast episodes (and your daughter's cameo). 😊
While I firmly believe that Trump will lose the November election, it is an unknown at this point and it has such long-lasting and important consequences for the US and for Ukraine. Planning can't be effectively done when you have such a chasm between the two US candidates with such human consequences.