Will Ukraine give up territory for NATO?
And, an 80-year-old tragedy complicating Ukrainian-Polish relations.
Happy Sunday, and welcome to your weekly briefing on Ukraine.
On Tuesday, in an article dramatically titled “Ukraine faces its darkest hour”, Financial Times published a grim analysis of Ukraine’s war effort, describing growing Western calls to settle the war as soon as possible.
What’s more important, FT raised the possibility of Ukraine agreeing to a long-term ceasefire in exchange for NATO membership. The Economist published a similar piece last week, arguing that Biden must invite Ukraine into NATO, even if there isn’t a formal armistice with Moscow.
Both articles reference West Germany’s model: it joined NATO in 1955, while East Germany remained under Soviet control for more than three decades, and came under the NATO umbrella after the country’s unification.
Ukrainian politicians had a field day denying that Kyiv would ever cede territory, or agree to any compromise. Admittedly, this isn’t the solution the Ukrainians want. We want our territories — where tons of Ukrainians live under a brutal occupation — back, and a great deal of justice for Russian criminals.
But the idea is out there, and is reportedly gaining traction in the White House, so let’s unpack it.
Theoretically: Ukraine would agree to stop fighting, creating a clear defensive demarcation line between Ukrainian and Russian forces. As of right now, that would leave around a quarter of Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation. Ukraine wouldn’t necessarily legally recognize Russian control of those territories; as has been the case with Crimea and parts of Donbas before 2022, they would be “temporarily occupied”. Upon becoming a NATO member, the alliance’s protection would only extend to the territories under Ukrainian control.
This could allow Ukraine to rebuild and recover. It would also give Ukraine the strongest possible security guarantee – NATO’s Article 5.
Here are some open questions about this possibility:
Would Russia agree to this outcome and stop fighting? It’s not at all obvious that Russia wants the war to end – its latest national budget draft appropriates 40 percent to defense spending. Moscow’s genocidal rhetoric hasn’t changed. Its frontline offensives aren’t slowing down. What if Russia decides to sabotage Ukraine’s accession by, for example, launching an offensive right as the application process kicks in?
Will NATO members – including Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey – accept Ukraine’s bid? For Ukraine to join the alliance, every NATO member has to support Kyiv’s application, and then ratify the accession in their parliaments. Slovakia has opposed Ukraine joining the alliance in the past. Could the US pressure every member to support it?
After accession, will NATO oppose Ukrainian attempts to militarily de-occupy its territory? Croatia regained control of its territory in a stunning operation four years after Serbia first invaded it. I recognize this isn’t the most appropriate historical reference, but if Ukraine tried a similar approach, would NATO oppose it to avoid a NATO-Russia confrontation? The West Germany model worked because its Chancellor agreed to pursue only diplomacy for unification. Would Ukraine similarly agree to give up on a military solution?
What if Russia decides to test NATO and invade again? The chances are extremely low, in my opinion, since Putin surely knows his army can’t stand against NATO. But the White House isn’t exactly full of risk-tolerant people. Will this risk prevent Washington from inviting Ukraine at all? Is NATO even ready for a confrontation with Russia?
That’s on the NATO side. On the European Union accession side, things are complicated too.
Polish and Ukrainian relations have turned sour recently, so much so that it may threaten Ukraine’s path to the EU.
The issue is 80 years old, and a highly sensitive one: The Volyn Massacre, during which the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) killed tens of thousands of Poles in the German-occupied Volyn region. Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance says as many as 100,000 Poles were killed. Up to 15,000 Ukrainian civillians were killed in retaliation.
There is disagreement over what to call it, whether it amounts to genocide, why it was perpetrated, and what to do about it now.
Polish historians argue that the UPA wanted to purge the Ukrainian region of the Polish minority. Ukrainian historians speak of the historical context and the pre-existing relationship between Poles and Ukrainians. The Second Polish Republic occupied Volyn and oppressed the Ukrainian population there, trying to assimilate them, they argue. A friend of mine, who is a historian, pointed out in a conversation recently: “Why were the Poles in Volyn in the first place?”
Ukraine and Poland are close allies now, but they haven’t always been.
For years, Polish authorities have demanded access to Volyn to exhume the remains of the victims. Poles have also criticized the increasing glorification of UPA by some Ukrainians. Ukraine stopped the exhumation plans in 2017 after UPA memorials were vandalized in Poland.
The issue was reportedly brought up again in a fiery conversation between Zelensky and Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on Sept. 13, leaving both sides openly frustrated, according to media reports. In the past, Polish officials threatened to stall Ukraine’s EU bid until the issue was resolved.
On Oct. 2, Ukraine’s Institute of National Memory announced that it would begin the search and exhumation of Polish remains in Ukraine's Rivne Oblast in 2025. On the same day, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha discussed the issue with Polish President Andrzej Duda, saying that Ukraine has “enough political will and diplomatic skill to solve any, including the most difficult, issues”. I surely hope so. Ukraine should know the importance of historical memory more than anyone.
No good news from the front line this week.
Another Ukrainian town, Vuhledar, fell to the Russians on Oct. 2. Every Ukrainian town is important, but this one especially – it was a fortified logistical juncture for Ukrainian forces, who’ve been defending it from Russian assaults for more than two years. Vuhledar’s fall makes it easier for Russians to advance westward toward the village of Velyka Novosilka. At the same time, Russian forces are hoping to take control of logistical routes that go from Zaporizhzhia to the east of Ukraine, near the villages of Orykhiv and Nova Tokmachka.
With that, an air raid just went on in Kyiv, with drones approaching from the east. I hope my night is peaceful, and so is your week.
I’ll be back next Sunday. Cheers, and Glory to Ukraine
– Yours Ukrainian
Why were the Poles living in Western Ukraine is quite a disingenuous question, especially coming from a historian. The western part of what is currently Ukraine was part of the Kingdom of Poland for many centuries, in some places Poles were even a majority of the population.