What is Zelensky's victory plan?

Ukraine needs an upper hand to negotiate with Russia.

Happy Sunday, and welcome to your weekly briefing on Ukraine. In light of my force majeure absence last weekend, we’ll cover key news from the previous two weeks. 

Let’s begin with the most intriguing and consequential piece of the puzzle – Ukraine’s newly-made “victory plan”, which President Volodymyr Zelensky plans to present to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Donald Trump next week during his visit to the United States. 

The plan isn’t public yet, but Zelensky said it includes four main points: security, Ukraine’s geopolitical standing, military aid, and economic support, as well as an extra fifth point to be implemented after the war. 

The government also refuted media reports that the plan suggested a ceasefire. “There cannot be any alternative peace, no freezing of the war or any other manipulation,” Zelensky said. 

All we can do now is wait and throw out educated guesses. The plan probably outlines how the US and its allies should boost Ukraine’s long-range military capabilities and lift all restrictions on the use of these weapons. That way, Ukraine can carry out a large-scale campaign of targeted strikes against Russia’s military infrastructure. The plan might also include additional economic sanctions against Russia and an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO. 

The idea is to put maximum pressure on Russia to force it into peace talks in which Ukraine would enjoy a strong negotiating position. 

The idea isn’t new. Ukraine has been asking for all the same things for years. But with six months until the American election, the stakes are infinitely higher, and Ukraine is ramping up the sense of urgency.

Neither presidential candidate seems willing to risk open war with Russia to protect Europe, but only one candidate is running on a staunchly anti-Ukrainian ticket, and his chances to win are alarmingly high. 

I wonder why it took so long for Ukraine to develop this plan: it’s been clear for more than a year that America isn’t bold enough to help Ukraine win militarily. I also wonder what happens if Biden rejects the plan – after all, its points likely defy the entirety of the current US policy of engagement with Russia. 

On the topic of crucial negotiations, Ukraine’s key allies, the UK and the US have been debating whether to let Ukraine strike deep into Russian territory with Western weapons, more specifically – the British-made Storm Shadow. 

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken discussed the issue during his visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, Sept. 11. Two days later, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer met President Biden in Washington. London is reportedly ready to let Ukraine use its missiles in Russia but is waiting for America’s approval. 

Vladimir Putin has once again threatened nuclear war to sabotage the negotiations, saying that a positive decision “will mean nothing other than the direct involvement of NATO in the war in Ukraine.” 

Despite the anticipation of a Friday announcement, Washington hasn’t yet budged: National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said the policy hasn’t changed. 

Ukraine still managed to make things go boom in Russia, hitting several military sites, including one of the largest weapons warehouses in Russia in the city of Toropets. It was supposedly built to withstand a nuclear strike and was hailed as indestructible, storing tens of thousands of ammunition pieces. Estonian intelligence said the attack may have destroyed up to 3 months worth of ammunition. 

Footage of the explosion was so dramatic that some even suggested that Storm Shadows, or some other long-range missiles, were already being deployed in secret. 

Here’s a video, enjoy: 

On the front line, Russians launched a counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast, more than a month after Ukraine’s operation began. Ukraine said it successfully stopped the attacks. (On the topic of Kursk: The Guardian reported that the Russians supposedly knew about the upcoming incursion for months, and still failed to prevent it.) And, intense fighting is still ongoing near the city of Pokrvosk in Donetsk Oblast, despite the government’s claims that the situation has stabilized. 

I’ll be back next week. 

Cheers, and Glory to Ukraine 

– Yours Ukrainian