Washington halts aid to Ukraine...

...at the worst possible time

Hello and welcome to your weekly briefing on Ukraine.

On Tuesday, the White House said it was pausing weapons deliveries to Ukraine because of the Pentagon’s concerns that American stockpiles were running low. The move, which the Pentagon said was part of a broader effort to review all American arms transfers abroad to make sure they align with American priorities, caught Kyiv off guard. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said it wasn’t officially notified about any changes in arms deliveries, and has requested a call with its American counterparts to clarify the situation.

NBC News reported that the pause was a unilateral decision by the US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who ignored the analysis of senior military leadership that said the stockpiles were nowhere near critical. If true, this would be the third time Hegseth has abruptly suspended aid to Ukraine.

The weapons impacted by the pause include interceptors for Patriot air defense systems, missiles for F-16 jets, and precision artillery rounds. Patriot systems and the F-16 jets make up the bulk of Ukraine’s air defence capabilities, and are critical for shooting down Russian missiles.

The decision could hardly come at a worse time for Ukraine. Over the past few months, Russia has significantly escalated its aerial assaults, attacking Ukraine with hundreds of drones and missiles several times a week.

This week was no exception. On Thursday night, Russia launched yet another record-breaking attack, hitting mainly Kyiv with 539 drones and 11 missiles. Dozens of people were injured and countless civilian buildings were damaged, including the Polish consulate. The smoke from the fires covered much of the city center, so in the morning, authorities encouraged everyone to stay indoors as much as possible. After running to several meetings in downtown Kyiv that day, I can confirm that not many people followed the government’s advice, even though the air was extremely polluted and genuienly difficult to breathe.

What’s especially worrying is that, according to Ukraine’s Air Force, only 2 of the 11 missiles were shot down. All 7 ballistic missiles fired by Russia, as well as 2 cruise missiles, hit their targets. Authorities don’t reveal damage done to military sites, so we don’t know what was hit.

What we do know is that the American-made Patriot is the only air defence system available to Ukraine that can effectively shoot down ballistic missiles, which are hardest to intercept because of their speed and trajectory. Patriots are extremely expensive and arduous to produce, but they are the sole reason why Kyiv has been a relatively safe city until now. If Ukraine runs out of Patriot munitions, whose delivery the US has just halted, Kyiv may become exceedingly dangerous for millions of its residents.

Here’s a reminder of what Russian ballistic missiles do to residential buildings:

The aftermath of a Russian strike on Kyiv on June 16-17. Photo shared by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

Just hours before the Russian attack on Thursday, Donald Trump had a call with Vladimir Putin. Trump told reporters he was “very disappointed” with the conversation.“I don’t think he is looking to stop (the war) and that’s too bad,” he said.

The next day, Trump held a phone call with Zelensky, who said the two spoke about joint defence industry projects, mutual investment, and air defence. Anonymous sources told Axios that Trump told Zelensky he wanted to help Ukraine with air defence, and that “he will check what was put on hold if anything”

In other news, the Dutch and German intelligence services said in a joint press release that Russia was intensifying its use of chemical weapons in Ukraine. “The use of both teargas and chloropicrin by Russian troops has now become standard practice,” the statement said. According to Ukraine’s Defence Ministry, Russia has conducted over 9,000 chemical attacks since 2022.

On a better note, Ukraine and Russia held another prisoner swap, returning home seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers and those under 25 years of age. This is the 8th POW exchange since the last round of Istanbul talks in early June, when Ukraine and Russia agreed on large-scale swaps of young and ill soldiers.

Other stories I’m following…

From The Economist, Ukraine’s political infighting gets nasty

From Politico, Denmark pushes to suspend Hungary’s EU voting rights

From the New York Times, Europe’s Dilemma: Build a Military Industry or Keep Relying on the U.S.

I’ll be back next week.

Cheers,

— Yours Ukrainian