Ukraine's lack of manpower is critical
Failed mobilization efforts and poor management threaten not only the front line but cities in the rear.
Hello and welcome to your weekly briefing on Ukraine.
It’s an unfortunate trend — every time I sit down to write this newsletter, it’s almost always mere hours after a Russian attack against Kyiv. This time, on Saturday, the capital was under attack around 5 am, and it was worse than usual: ballistic missiles hit Kyiv minutes after an air raid alarm caused by Russian drones was over. Several loud explosions rocked the city just as people were exiting shelters and leaving their safe-ish bathrooms/corridors to get back in bed.
The Air Force said they intercepted two Iskander missiles. The fallen debris killed three people and caused significant damage near the Lukianivska metro station, not that far from downtown Kyiv.
That area of the city is arguably one of the worst places to live in because it’s home to Artem, a production plant that still makes weapons, despite the doors and windows shut and barricaded, and the place looking deserted at first glance (don’t worry, this is publically available information). Russia has attacked this area many times over the years, causing civilian casualties in the process.
Speaking of Ukraine’s Air Force, its fate was hotly debated this week after roughly a dozen Air Force servicemen recorded a video complaining that more than 200 of their technical specialists were ordered to transfer to the infantry, putting the integrity of the aircraft and air defence at risk. “The technical staff is actually being destroyed, and without us, the aviation will not be able to function,” a serviceman says in the video.
It’s well-known that many people have been finding themselves in the infrantry despite intending to serve elsewhere. And in part, it’s justified: infantry is the backbone of Ukraine’s military effort, and it’s suffering the worst losses. Yet this particular scandal is worrisome because at least some of the transferees are rare specialists and engineers with years of experience. Some have been trained abroad to work with western air defence systems.
Ukrainska Pravda reported that the Air Force has been losing thousands of men as a result of such transfers since 2024. The latest order to transfer more than 5000 people to Ukraine’s Ground Forces reportedly came on Jan. 11 from Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi.
The Air Force Command reacted by pledging to stop reassagning servicemen of scarce specializations. But Ukraine’s mobilization problem is part management, part optics. And in that second department, the damage has alredy been done.
Some good news: Ukraine’s General Staff said the military launched “the most massive” air attack against Russia on Jan. 14, hitting military targets up to 1100 kilometers deep inside Russian territory with missiles and drones. The targets included a chemical factory that makes rocket fuel and ammunition, an oil depot near the Engels-2 airbase, and an oil refinery. Reporting on the same attack, the 14th Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Regiment said that it was a “multi-day, comprehensive operation to reduce the enemy's strategic aviation capabilities”.
On the international front, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer came to Kyiv to sign a 100-year partnership agreement between Ukraine and the UK.
The agreement includes cooperation in defense, maritime security, trade, energy, justice, foreign disinformation, science and technology, culture, and migration, as well as Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. It also includes a commitment to provide Ukraine with no less than 3 billion pounds annually until at least 2030.
Zelensky and Starmer reportedly also discussed the deployment of an international peacekeeping force to Ukraine. After the visit, Starmer told SkyNews that the UK “will play (its) full part” in a potential peacekeeping mission. This comes just days after a call between Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron, when they discussed the “French initiative to deploy military contingents in Ukraine”.
In Washington, a dozen of Trump’s nominees went through their confirmation hearings this week, including the somewhat important for Ukraine Defence Secretary pick Pete Hegseth, State Secretary pick Marco Rubio, and Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent.
I watched the entirety of the Hegseth hearing and parts of the others, and I couldn’t help but think just how much the process reminds me of a Russian-like political show. Everyone understands that accusations of sexual assault, drunkenness, and corruption are real and valid, but no one cares because the outcome is pretty much pre-determined. Everyone plays the part — Democrats accuse, Republicans flatter, and the nominees stay put and praise the Tsar in every sentence.
When Hegseth was asked about Ukraine, he replied: "We know who the aggressor is. We know who the good guy is. We’d like to see (the outcome) as advantageous for the Ukrainians as possible."
Rubio called on everyone to be “realistic”, and said both Ukraine and Russia will have to make concessions to end the war. “There's no way Russia takes all of Ukraine. The Ukrainians are too brave and fight too hard, and the country is too big. That's not going to happen. It's also unrealistic to believe that…Ukraine is also going to push these people all the way back to where they were on the eve of the invasion just given the size dynamic.”
The Treasury pick Bessent, who would be key to enforcing sanctions agaisnt Russia, said he would “be 100% on board for taking sanctions up, especially on the Russian oil majors to levels that would bring the Russian Federation to the (negotiating) table.”
Before I go, a reminder to join the subscriber chat where we can talk and share news, Ukraine-related or not! I dropped a very exciting announcement for you guys there, check it out :)
I’ll be back next week.
Cheers, and Glory to Ukraine
— Yours Ukrainian
Good to have you back on these pages, Nastia. I know you've been busy with your documentary project, but I've missed these updates. Haven't discovered anyone as good as you summarising events in such a concise way. Don't leave us! 😭