On peace before summer

Why Ukraine can neither hold elections nor give up Donbas

Hello from a coffee shop in Kyiv’s adored historic Podil district.

Many things happened in Ukraine this week, but the most impactful one is the following: the temperatures are finally above freezing here in Kyiv, 1°C or 33°F, which is “practically tropical,” as my friend put it.

The changing weather brings some relief to the hundreds of thousands of Kyivans who have been living without heating for weeks, and to the rest of us who had various heating arrangements but still found life at -20°C unbearable.

Roughly 1200 high-rise apartment buildings on the left bank of the city will remain cold for months because Russia destroyed their main heat source—the Darnytska Thermal Power Plant, one of the capital’s three large Soviet-era power plants. Kyiv mayor said it will take at least two months to repair the plant if there are no more attacks, which is a pipe dream since energy infrastructure remains Russia’s daily target. The weekly large-scale attack, which fell on a Wednesday night, injured at least seven people in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa.

One popular way to escape the energy crisis this week is a ticket to Munich, where hundreds have descended for one of the world’s most important gatherings—the annual Munich Security Conference.

President Zelensky is leading the Ukrainian delegation that is expected to meet with American officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

In the backdrop is a flurry of reporting alleging that Ukraine is being pressured to negotiate a peace deal by June, forcing Kyiv to consider unthinkable concessions—holding a potentially illegitimate elections and giving up land.

Speaking with reporters early this week, Zelensky said the Trump administration set June 2026 as its new deadline to end the war in Ukraine so it could focus on upcoming midterm elections.

The Financial Times then reported on Wednesday that Ukraine was considering holding presidential elections alongside a referendum on a peace deal with Russia because the Trump administration was pressing Kyiv to hold both votes by May 15, and that Zelensky planned to announce it on February 24, the upcoming fourth anniversary of the full-scale war. Citing anonymous Ukrainian and western officials, the FT said the plan “underscored Zelensky’s desire to maximise his re-election prospects”, assuming that getting re-elected will be easier if the window for an election campaign for other candidates is extremely slim or non-existent altogether.

Zelensky denied that such plans existed, saying that a ceasefire was necessary for any election. I don’t know if the former is true, but the latter certainly is—I’ve written in detail why it is simply impossible to hold an election before the end of the war in this piece for Lawfare. Experts say Ukraine needs at least six months of preparation—once the ceasefire takes hold—to organize an election that is democratic and fair.

The next day, on Thursday, The Atlantic published an interview with Zelensky. The article anonymously cited two of Zelensky’s advisers saying that the president “may be ready to accept the hardest concession of all: giving up control of land in the eastern Donetsk region.” Ukraine currently controls roughly 20 percent of Donetsk oblast, a region that, along with the neighboring and fully occupied Luhansk oblast, makes up the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

The fate of Donbas remains the main bone of contention in peace talks. Russia demands that Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk oblast, voluntarily giving up a large chunk of land that includes some of Ukraine’s best fortifications and several cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants. For many months, the Ukrainian government has said that giving up territory was a red line for Kyiv, suggesting freezing the fighting along the current line of contact.

The Americans are trying to solve this unsolvable problem by offering creative workarounds like a “free economic zone” or some demilitarized arrangement in Donetsk oblast. The idea creates more challenges than it solves; for starters, who will administer the territory, and which force will prevent the Russians from streaming in as soon as Ukraine withdraws?

And if Zelensky ever agrees to give up territory, a potential peace deal will face three votes. The first vote will be a referendum for the Ukrainian public, roughly half of which opposes making territorial concessions, according to polling. The second vote will be in parliament, which is de facto controlled by the president.

And the third, most critical vote, will be cast by the tens of thousands of soldiers defending the front line, the people who’ve sacrificed years of life and have seen friends die to protect every inch of Ukrainian territory. When they receive the order to withdraw, I can hardly imagine them obediently laying down arms and walking away.

Other stories I’m following…

From the Wall Street Journal, NATO Has Seen the Future and Is Unprepared: A simulation of drone warfare shows how far the alliance has to go to learn the lessons of Ukraine.

From Politico, We war-gamed a Russian attack on NATO. Here’s what happened next.

From the Kyiv Independent, Regarding the torture of Ukrainians

I’ll be back next week.

Yours,

Ukrainian