Moscow asks for capitulation
Russia sticks to maximalist demands in official peace offer.
Hello and welcome to your briefing on Ukraine, a weekly newsletter where I explain the main headlines of the week from Kyiv.
This week was one of those rare periods of jubilation and pride for the Ukrainian people, so much so that my boss, Benjamin Wittes, reminded me to keep my cool and tone down the happy dancing during our Substack Live on the matter.
You guessed it — Operation Spider Web, Ukraine’s astonishing drone attack against Russian airfields on June 1, was the focal point of pretty much everything this week. Instead of gleefully writing about it here, let me direct you to my overview of the operation here on Yours Ukrainian and a podcast episode I did with my colleagues, including Eric Ciaramella, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace fellow who’s done Ukraine-related work for the US government for decades. Eric and I share our reflections about the attack’s timing, Ukraine’s motivations, and the potential consequences for Moscow. The conversation is here.
Ukraine’s wrath wasn’t limited to Russian planes this week. Ukraine’s Security Service, which carried out Spider Web, also attacked the Crimean Bridge, mining its underwater pillars with explosives that detonated on June 3. Moscow built the bridge in 2016 to connect occupied Crimea to the Russian mainland, using it to turn Crimea into an enormous military base.
Now, onto less exciting news.
Ep. 2 of Istanbul. Ukraine and Russia held their second round of peace talks on Monday. There is still no ceasefire on the horizon, but another large POW swap is in the works. According to Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who heads the Ukrainian delegation at the talks, the parties agreed to swap all severely-injured and sick prisoners, as well as all soldiers 18 to 25 years of age. Russia also agreed to swap 6000 bodies of killed soldiers, suggesting a 2-3 day ceasefire on certain sectors of the front line to retrieve the dead, to which Zelensky replied with his typical candor: “I think they’re idiots, because, fundamentally, a ceasefire is meant so that there are no dead.” The Ukrainian delegation also shared with its counterparts a list of 339 kidnapped Ukrainian children they wanted returned, to which the head of Moscow’s delegation replied with typical Russian depravity: “Don’t put on a show for bleeding-heart European old ladies with no children of their own."
Russia’s terms of peace. During the talks, Moscow finally shared its official peace proposal for the first time. It’s a bit long, but I want to walk you through it so you can see for yourself just how maximalist Russian demands are. The document includes three parts. The first, titled “Basic parameters of the final settlement”, outlines the following demands:
Crimea, as well as Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, are internationally recognized as parts of Russia. Ukraine voluntarily gives up parts of those oblasts that Russia doesn’t yet control.
Ukraine is a neutral, non-nuclear state that can’t host any foreign military troops or infrastructure.
Cap on Ukraine’s Armed Forces and their capabilities. Dissolution of “Ukrainian nationalist formations" within the military.
Ensuring full rights, freedoms, and interests of the Russian and Russian-speaking population in Ukraine. Making Russian a second state language.
A ban on the “heroization and propaganda of nazism” and the dissolution of nationalistic parties and groups.
Cancellation of all Ukrainian sanctions against Russia.
Resolution of issues connected to displaced persons and the reunification of families.
Waiving of mutual claims to war-related damages.
Removal of restrictions placed on the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine.
The gradual restoration of diplomatic and economic relations between Ukraine and Russia, including gas transit, transportation, and other communications between Russia and other states that run through Ukraine.
The second part outlines two options for implementing a ceasefire. Option 1 suggests that Ukraine begin the full unconditional withdrawal of its forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts. Option 2 outlines the following demands:
Ukraine can’t redeploy (move around) its armed forces, except to withdraw them to an agreed distance away from the front line.
Ukraine stops mobilization and begins demobilizing its soldiers.
The West stops supplying military aid to Ukraine and pauses all intelligence sharing.
A guarantee that no foreign troops, advisors, or other specialists of any kind will be present in Ukraine.
A guarantee that Ukraine won’t carry out any sabotage activities in Russia.
Creation of a bilateral monitoring center to control the ceasefire.
Mutual amnesty of political prisoners and the release of all imprisoned civilians.
Ukraine lifts martial law.
Ukraine holds presidential and parliamentary elections no later than 100 days after the lifting of martial law.
Ukraine and Russia sign an agreement about the fulfillment of the demands outlined in Part 1.
Part 3 of the Russian proposal deals with implementation logistics. It says that once Ukraine starts withdrawing its forces, a 30-day ceasefire begins, and all demands from Part 2 must be fulfilled within those 30 days. It also says that the final peace agreement can only be signed after Ukraine holds elections.
I’ll keep my thoughts brief, largely because I think the text speaks for itself. These demands, especially the ones outlined in Part 1, are unacceptable for Ukraine. In essence, Russia is asking for Ukraine to capitulate, revert to the days when Russian agents and influence roamed free through all parts of the Ukrainian society and government, shaping its domestic and foreign policy. This is what Russia has always desired — a Belarus-like Ukrainian state that answers to the Kremlin. Check out this recent Lawfare Daily podcast episode, where I unpack Russian peace terms in greater detail with my colleague Mykhailo Soldatenko.
Polish elections. Right-wing historian Karol Nawrocki narrowly won the Polish presidential election on June 1, setting the stage for a downturn in Ukrainian-Polish relations. The results were so close that his opponent, the liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, prematurely declared victory on election night, only to lose against Nawrocki’s 50.89 percent of the vote. Nawrocki is a Trump-like conservative who has opposed Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the European Union, voicing his “disappointment” with Zelensky over the “unresolved” historical issues between Ukraine and Poland, namely the Volhynia Massacre.
“Letting them fight”. Speaking during an Oval Office meeting with the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, on Thursday, Donald Trump bizarrely compared Ukraine and Russia to two kids fighting, insisting that letting them fight “for a little longer” was the appropriate response. “Sometimes you see two young children fighting like crazy. They hate each other, and they’re fighting in a park, and you try and pull them apart. They don’t want to be pulled, sometimes you’re better off letting them fight for a while,” Trump told reporters. On a better note, Merz said after the meeting that he had no doubt that Washington remained committed to NATO, and didn’t plan to withdraw from the alliance.
Russia’s revenge. The week approached its end with Russia attacking Ukraine with 407 drones and 44 missiles on Friday morning, mainly targeting Kyiv in what Moscow said was retaliation for Spider Web. At least 32 Kyivans were injured, including 16 emergency workers, three of whom were killed during an apparent double-tap strike. On Saturday, Russia also launched its largest-ever attack against the city of Kharkiv, killing at least three people and injuring 21, including a 1.5-month-old baby and a 14-year-old girl.
Other stories I’m following…
From POLITICO, Europe arms itself against cyber catastrophe
From the Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum, Every election is now existential
From the New York Times, Return of Wrongly Deported Man Raises Questions About Trump’s Views of Justice
I’ll be back next week.
Cheers,
Yours Ukrainian
"We are not kids with Putin at the playground in the park," Pres. Zelensky said in a clip from "This Week with George Stephanopoulos" released Friday. “He is a murderer who came to this park to kill the kids.” (Reported by the Murdoch-owned NY Post.)
Exactly right. Clear and simple enough even for trump to understand.
There is a bipartisan majority in Congress eager to pass strong sanctions against Russia right now. Unfortunately, trump needs all the leverage he can get to control Republican votes for his One Big Ugly Bill. If Republicans in Congress want something, he will withhold it until they vote. Unless, of course, Graham et al. discover where they misplaced their courage and conscience, evidently lost forever.
It is more important than ever for Americans to keep up the pressure on their representatives until the Russia sanctions become law. Keeping writing, calling, and protesting!!
NO KINGS -- SLAVA UKRAINI
Glad you are safe.