Is Trump a catastrophe or an opportunity for Ukraine?

Trump's victory provides more questions than answers.

Hello and welcome to your weekly briefing on Ukraine. 

Before we dive into analyzing the world’s main event, here are a few domestic-ish updates: 

• Russia has ramped up its drone attacks against Ukraine. More than 1300 Iranian shaheeds attacked Ukraine in October, almost a threefold increase from the summer monthly average of 515 drones. Drones have been flying over even downtown Kyiv, with debris hitting residential buildings, cars, and energy facilities. Russia is trying to deplete Ukraine’s air defenses, likely preparing for mass missile attacks in the weeks to come, as temperatures plunge. 

• Russia keeps taking one village after another in Donetsk Oblast, racing to take control of as much of the eastern Donbas region as possible before winter. Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi described the frontline situation as “challenging” and said it’s “trending towards escalation”. In the Kursk region, where Ukraine still controls roughly 230 square miles, the New York Times said Russia has amassed 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops to reclaim that territory, so a major Russian counteroffensive is coming. 

• Moldova dodged a Russian bullet: the pro-European incumbent President Maya Sandu defeated the Russian-backed candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo in a presidential election. Russia invested millions of dollars into sabotaging Sandu’s anti-Russian campaign effort, buying votes and spreading disinformation. Despite the win, Sandu’s position is no less precarious: her ratings are low, and half of the country backs her opponent. It was the vote of the diaspora – pro-EU Moldovans voting outside of Moldova – that gave her a win. 

What mattered most this week was, of course, the stunning comeback of Donald Trump. 

I am relieved that the hell that is the American election season is over. But I am no less anxious. One type of dread has been replaced with another: now that Trump is back, what will he do to Ukraine? 

My American democratic bubble is terrified. Trump campaigned with clear anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, insulting Zelensky and refusing to say that a Ukrainian victory is in America’s interests, all while flirting with Putin and praising his invasion of Ukraine. His VP Vance infamously said he didn’t care what happened to Ukraine. With both chambers of Congress now in Republican hands, it’s feasible, and even quite likely, that the American government won’t pass another funding bill for Ukraine. Given that most military aid comes from the US, that would be nothing short of a catastrophe. 

My Ukrainian bubble is anxious but optimistic. Many think that Trump’s chaotic unpredictability is a window of opportunity and that Ukrainian diplomats can persuade Trump that helping Ukraine is in his interests. 

The optimists cite two things: their profound dissatisfaction with Biden, and the fact that Trump was the first American president to send Ukraine lethal weapons in 2019. 

Biden’s popularity is as low in Ukraine as it is in America. Ukrainians by and large think Biden’s Ukraine policy is a failure – a slow, incremental flow of weapons that gives you just enough to survive but not enough to win and keep your territory. People hate the word ‘escalation’ and Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan for trying to avoid escalation with Russia at all costs. Many Ukrainians think the US doesn’t even want Ukraine to win and is using the country as a proxy to wear down the Russians. Ukrainians are tired of what they perceive as weak and overly cautious American leadership. Just like many Americans, they want radical change. 

The American pessimists say Trump doesn't care about Ukraine on a personal level like Biden does, and that Trump only agreed to send a small number of Javelins because he was told that Ukraine will procure many more in the future. They say Trump cares about himself, money, and little else. The Ukrainian optimists say that’s fine — Kyiv just has to sell the Ukrainian cause in a way that makes Trump look good, strong, and victorious.

This debate is endless.

An entirely different question is what Biden will do in the last two months of his presidency. 

Biden could lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons inside Russia or take steps to advance Ukraine’s NATO bid. It doesn’t seem like he is planning on it though.

"President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe," Sullivan said on Nov. 10, specifying that they don’t plan on radically changing the current approaches. 

I plan on writing a piece on all the hypothetical scenarios for the war’s resolution under Trump, so stay tuned for that.

I’ll be back soon,

Cheers, and Glory to Ukraine,

— Yours Ukrainian