Did Trump just sell out Ukraine?

In 48 hours, Trump and his team have nearly shattered America's standing in negotiations with Russia, endangering Ukraine and Europe.

When the United States Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth arrived at NATO headquarters on Feb. 12 for a Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, it was already clear that he wasn’t bringing any good news. Everything got exponentially worse as soon as he opened his mouth.

"We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective,” Hegseth said in his opening remarks. This already was a tough pill for many Ukrainians to swallow, but he kept going.

“A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again…That said, the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome…Any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops. They should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission. To be clear…there will not be U.S. troops deployed to Ukraine.”

And just like that, in one speech, Hegseth seemed to give away much American leverage, spreading panic around Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

To be clear: immediate NATO membership and American boots on the ground were basically a non-starter under Joe Biden too. The Ukrainian government knew this, despite the NATO invitation being constantly flaunted as the only viable path to victory (it was the #1 point of President Zelensky’s so-called victory plan). One of the reasons why NATO has kept its frustratingly vague policy of Ukraine’s “irreversible path to NATO” is to deny Putin a major strategic victory and not let him dictate Ukraine’s foreign policy by force. Another reason is to use NATO membership as leverage when the time comes. If Putin wanted Ukraine to reject NATO or no American forces on Ukrainian soil, he had to do something to make that happen.

Hegseth’s speech essentially gave the Kremlin a huge win that cost them nothing. It was such an obviously bad example of dealmaking that Roger Wicker, the Republican chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said: "I don’t know who wrote the speech — it is the kind of thing Tucker Carlson could have written, and Carlson is a fool.”

The speech also clearly wasn’t coordinated with Ukraine or Europe, since both appeared completely dumbfounded.

“Why are we giving them what they want before the negotiations have even started?”, Europen Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas said shortly after. "We shouldn’t take anything off the table…If there is an agreement made behind our backs, it will simply not work", Kallas said, looking shocked that she even had to spell that out.

And then, Trump had a 90-minute phone call with Putin, giving the dictator yet another huge win — a warm welcome from international isolation.

“We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s nations,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelensky...”

He did call Zelensky. He also said he wanted to meet Putin in Saudi Arabia.

And just like that, in one day, Trump’s White House brought the Kremlin back on the international stage, gave up significant leverage, let Putin dictate the terms of forthcoming negotiations, and blindsided both Ukraine and Europe in the process.

Somehow, the next day was even more embarrassing, because Hegseth walked everything back:

"These negotiations are led by President Trump. Everything is on the table…So I'm not going to stand at this podium and declare what President Trump will do or won't do.”

But does Trump have any idea what he will or won’t do?

Just consider his answer to whether Ukraine will get back to its 2014 borders:

“I’m not making an opinion on it, but I’ve read a lot on it, and a lot of people think that that’s unlikely…Some of it will come back. I think some of it will come back,” Trump said. (You should make an opinion on it, Mr. President)

And on Ukraine’s NATO bid:

“I don’t think it’s practical…Pete (Hegseth) made a statement today saying that he thinks it’s unlikely or impractical. That’s probably true…. (Russians) have been saying for a long time that Ukraine can’t go into NATO. And I’m okay with that. I just want the war to end.”

There is one more character in this saga — J.D. Vance — and he has an opinion too.

“Everything is on the table,” the Wall Street Journal reported him saying on Feb. 13, with “everything” including American troops in Ukraine as well.

After that headline came out, Vance took to X and walked back his walk back, saying that the WSJ twisted his words and that “Trump is the ultimate deal maker”. Right.

In the flurry of speeches, press conferences, and media scoops from two continents, the past 48 hours genuinely felt like a blur.

Hegseth, Trump, and Vance have all contradicted each other time and again, none seeming confident about what they are doing and how to end Russia’s war.

At one point Trump said there was going to be a meeting between officials from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Kyiv almost immediately rejected that, saying they would only talk to the Kremlin after developing a plan with Americans and Europeans.

But how do you even develop a plan when the person who should be your #1 ally refuses to see you and barely speaks with you? How do you develop a plan when the government of your #1 ally changes its stance every other hour? How do you develop a plan when your #1 ally is more enthusiastic about your enemy’s needs than yours? Maybe that ally is an enemy in disguise?

"Imagine that Hitler was not destroyed... Imagine that after everything he did to the Jews... people said: okay, let’s look for a compromise," Zelensky told The Economist in an interview hours before the Trump-Putin call. He warned that blindsiding Ukraine would be a betrayal.

“No one understands what war is until it comes to your home. I don’t want to scare anyone. It will come.”